That's a good sign, as noted earlier, for his potential right away. He scored pretty well in my model post-draft. Host on The Late-Round Fantasy Footb and Guest on Move The Line, FantasyPros - Fantasy Footba, The SuperFlex SuperShow | Dy, and DLF Family of Podcasts. Excluding Spencer Ware a late-season pick-up who only started two games 43% of the running backs . Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations, Daily Fantasy Golf: The Heat Check Podcast for The Arnold Palmer Invitational, FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Wednesday 3/1/23, 3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23, 3 Daily Fantasy NHL Stacks for Tuesday 2/28/23, 5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23, 3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23, NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 2/28/23: Targeting 3 Totals on Tuesday, College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/28/23, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/28/23, NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 2/28/23, Meyer called Etienne his "third-down back", he's noted that he plays smaller than that, John Harbaugh knows this and has talked about this, 87.6% of Justin Fields' attempts last season came against top-50 defenses, with the Patriots likely to decline his fifth-year option, The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Wide Receiver Prospects Who Produced Like Studs. Preseason. He dedicates 25 pages to explain fundamentals and the process, 15-30 pages for each position (concluding each one with "your 2022 plan of attack"), 35 pages of player takes, and then his rankings. Late-Round Fantasy Football creator. Shane is awful (@ShaneIsTheWorst) February 25, 2023. The Fantasy Playbook Podcast with Kyle Yates. I have Dotson as the Superflex 2.06, which perhaps sells him short a bit if he can provide two years of decent production and maintain second-round value but that feels like his ceiling. Like it or not, the running back position is THE most-important position in fantasy. Shifting to more drop backs doesn't mean a more efficient offense, even in this pass-friendly NFL era. By a lot. JJ Zachariason-- editor-in-chief at FanDuel and numberFire and host of The Late-Round Podcast-- joins us to talk Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen and, of course, QBs. Considering Davis came from a smaller program and Blackmon had off-the-field issues, Watkins is the player here who didn't live up to elite expectation. Fantasy football, drafting in particular, is about beating the market. PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. Be notified about upcoming drafts, enhancements, free projections, Apex strategy articles, and a chance to win a free entry to a $125 fantasy league! Print. The draft started quarterback-heavy, with eight passers and four running backs . NFL Draft Futures Betting: Who Will Be the First Defensive Player Drafted? Why cant I get anything close to startup value for Justin Fields? They waited on the position and got Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth with the 112th pick. Updated On: May 4, 2022, 2:32 pm ET. If you've got an early second-round pick in single-quarterback leagues, you're in a fairly tough spot. Ive found some noticeable trends that are actionable or at least a decent guide to expectation. https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/37137/fantasy-football-zachariason-s-pre-draft-fantasy-football-rookie-rankings. Couldn't be me. Read Locked On Jaguars: Interviews from Day 3 of East-West Shrine Game Practices by with a free trial. Smith was a top-10 pick, and even though we've seen top-10 busts in the past, a lot of them were objectively avoidable. He had one of the best scores of any prospect in my model before last week's event, and he's now a 96th percentile prospect in my model. Taking 30 minute deep dives into the analytics of dynasty, player evaluation and NFL trends. Or, at least, there could be competition. Top-10 Rookie WR Rankings with JJ Zachariason. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 14Tier: 8. Without the rushing component that the other quarterbacks bring, Jones may be a better superflex bet than a single-quarterback league one. He's a bigger-bodied back at 230 pounds who also can catch passes out of the backfield. He can be found on Twitter @PatKerrane. Find out more, Have questions or need some help? The guy does great work and in my opinion deserves some support. That's tough. . Instead, I'd rather bet on Matt Corral. Hes easily become one of my favorite podcasters quickly. Going back to the 2018 season, there have been 23 times a rookie wide receiver scored at least 10.5 fantasy points per game. The DLF Dynasty Podcast #557 Off-Season Player Movement Mock Draft & A Combine Preview, Trade Addicts Podcast 252 Episode Names are Hard to Think of, Dynasty Theory 192 2023 Quarterback Movement, The DLF Dynasty Podcast #556 Rookie ADP & More Coaching Talk. No one knows what'll happen there, but that would at least bring the rookie Rodgers some production as soon as Year 1. He's a third-rounder, and he's going to be playing with one of the best young quarterbacks in football, and it's on a team that doesn't necessarily have a locked-in number-two receiver. He may play a little undersized -- he weighed in at 215 pounds at his Pro Day, but. My model likes D'Wayne Eskridge more than I do, and that's creating some issues with where to rank him. But it was bad. One of the biggest draft-day winners was Trey Sermon, who ended up going to San Francisco in Round 3. That'll happen when the draft is pretty boring. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 10Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 6Post-Draft Positional Rank: 5Tier: 4. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. Per Sannes, despite this schedule, Fields ranks in the 74th percentile in adjusted yards per attempt among first-round quarterback selections since the turn of the century. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 26Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2Tier: 8. Thanks to everyone who's supported, and I'm looking forward to making things better every step of the way. Williams may have to play a year in a tandem, but it'll probably be his backfield in 2022. Had Chuba Hubbard not played in 2020, he may have been a Day 2 pick. To get the full benefits of numberFire, please sign up. There are a lot of analytical negatives, though. would be the team's 1-2 punch, seemingly on early downs. It's not an NFT it's a freaking fantasy football guide. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 15Tier: 8. He scored as a 74th percentile running back in my model post-draft -- that's nothing to write home about. For Whom The Tolls. Jones had a monster final season at Alabama, and his profile aligns closely with Joe Burrow's from last season, but Jones wasn't the first overall pick. James Snook-USA TODAY Sports. JJ answers those questions as he goes over his post-draft rankings. 3. Breece Hall is a great running back prospect, but not a flawless one. Jets RB Breece Hall. But what does that really mean within the context of this era of fantasy football? Like I said: teams change. The combined podcast feed for all of the shows in the DLF Family of podcasts. Tolbert solidified his standing in 2022 dynasty rookie rankings at the NFL Combine with 10 hands, a 76 3/8 wingspan, 4.49 40-yard dash, and 36 vertical jump. The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Mailbag 2/24/23. Hes met lifelong friends, won Fantasy Sports Writers Association awards, and worn gym shorts (and sometimes gorilla costumes) nearly every day of his nine-year career as a fantasy analyst. However, Pickett has far less of a built-in floor as the 20th pick than Wilson, Herbert, and Jones, who were all top 10 picks. Londons 29.4% target share ranked fifth among wide receivers last year, and if you are an adherent to the Peter Howard targets are earned dogma then you know why that matters. That's even truer of traditional pocket passers like we have with Mac Jones. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. That's translated into 50 fewer wide receiver targets than any other team. . Instead of a player like Montgomery, though, Green Bay's hoping they have more of a, He just wasn't overly productive, and it's tough to get super excited about landing with arguably the worst run organization in sports. And Day 3 picks don't pan out at a very high rate. 11. . JJ Zachariason's Tweets. The problem I have with this logic is that we can't assume Lamar Jackson makes the historic passing efficiency leap that, made, and we can't assume Rashod Bateman is as impactful of a player as Stefon Diggs is, even if we. Love hearing this. Falcons WR Drake London. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER. Fields isnt going to suddenly lose his rushing ability, but if hes given even just one top-tier receiving option (see Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs), he may be able to pull the reins in a bit on the rushing while making up for the difference with his passing. NFL Draft Futures Betting: Who Will Be the First Defensive Player Drafted? JJ Zachariason. . . The most wide open wide receiver depth chart in the NFL is in Detroit. I've also been listening to JJ for what feels like too long. Beyond that, it's really about placing your preferred longshot bets. Isaiah Spiller immediately becomes one of fantasy's most exciting handcuffs. Looking to play Best Ball on Underdog? View More. What I really like about it is it doesn't tell you who's good and who's not (according to the analyst) it shows you the process JJ takes when making his rankings as well. Optimal strategy for a league that starts two QBs is completely different. What questions are rattling around your brain? Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Which Second-Year Receivers Should You Buy? In hindsight, I should've given Elijah Moore a little more love when I talked about him before the draft. Episode Summary. I'm a bit skeptical of Zamir White, but I'm not looking to be completely out on a big back with speed, particularly one who could be a clear-cut early-down starter by this time next year. Since 2019, no FBS player has had more receptions of 15+ yards than Tolbert (77). On the plus side, he's got good agility, he competed well with second-rounder Javonte Williams at North Carolina (he actually had more yards from scrimmage than Williams last year), and he'll have a shot to showcase that right away for the Jets. The wide receiver position has two or three prospects clearly above the rest, depending on your point of view, ad a solid second tier well know more about after the draft. Authoring our 2021 Dynasty Rookie Rankings Guide include: Mike Braude: industry-renowned expert who has finished as the regular-season champion in the Apex Expert Writer's League (with competitors including Evan Silva, Mike Clay, Shawn Siegele, and JJ Zachariason among other leading fantasy experts) 3 out of the last 4 seasons. I'm lower than consensus, but I recommend getting some exposure. But -- but! #packers #shorts, The Dynasty Grind: QB Value SZN (also the combine or something), EVERYTHING You Need For the 2023 NFL Combine | Dynasty Fantasy Football. Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Rondale Moore rounds out this giant Tier 4, staying in the same position he was in pre-draft. He competed well with. thanks for tuning in, Your late round quarterback pdf from 2012 was what turned me on to this strategy. The trade up piece is interesting, too. Tylan Wallace being drafted towards the end of the fourth round was bad. That being said, it is helpful to have everything in one place to access at your fingertips, and everything in the book makes sense to include. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 7Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4Tier: 4. For a little background, I've been a fantasy football analyst for about 10 years now, getting my start after I published an e-book titled "The Late-Round Quarterback" back in 2012. Michael Carter II is now officially a Day 3 back, and that doesn't bode well for his career success in fantasy football. By a lot. That's due to the fact that he ranked in the top-eight in all three production-related categories in the model among the 50 wide receivers who were invited to the combine. As a team, 49ers backs ranked third in fantasy points per game last year. Where does Skyy Moore rank for rookie draft purposes now that he's a Kansas City Chief? JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB Feb 24th, 2023. Ronald Jones had 42 targets in 2020; White just has to get on the field, and he'll get targets. If you recall, Brown fell in rookie drafts because he landed in Tennessee, a team that was one of the most run-heavy in football. Williams may have to play a year in a tandem, but it'll probably be his backfield in 2022. pahowdy writes for dynastyleaguefootball.com. Late-Round Fantasy Football creator. Beyond Cook, this class provides several Day 3 backs with interesting paths to opportunity, but Tyler Allgeier is my favorite bet. Ive been collecting DLF startup ADP for a while. Read millions of eBooks and audiobooks on the web, iPad, iPhone and Android. After Dotson, there comes the point where you're really just better off drafting running backs. I'm don't think it's all that bad. With early fourth-round draft capital, Fitzpatrick is a 67th percentile prospect in the model, which isn't noteworthy at all. 2009-2023 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. Jaylen Waddle's is negative, which means it's below-average. Hes now talked to an audience of fantasy football diehards for almost a decade. He does have decent size and a good breakout age, but his stat score is below average. Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: What Should We Do With Kyler Murray? Not only do tight ends usually not do all that well as first-year players, but he'll be, at best, the fourth or fifth option in the Pittsburgh passing attack. I say all this to say, my buys from the second-year receiver class are limited to that first subset of players discussed, Olave, Wilson, Watson, Dotson, and London. Regular Season. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 1Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 1. Just saw this post and genuinely appreciate all the feedback. Instead of a player like Montgomery, though, Green Bay's hoping they have more of a Deebo Samuel type in Rodgers. I just can't shake the fact that Atwell weighed in at 155 pounds at his Pro Day. He now joins two other first-rounders since 2006 with a rate above 4.0 while being drafted in Round 1: Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. "will deploy a running back by committee as long as Mike LaFleur is their offensive coordinator. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 22Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4Tier: 7. Tight End. In fact, his adjusted yards per attempt against top-50 defenses last season was second-best in this draft class. There are four wide receivers who could easily be placed in this eighth overall spot -- I'm just opting to put Terrace Marshall Jr. there. You'll also get priority for mailbag questions for The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast's weekly mailbag episode. 2009-2018 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. There was a clear-cut group of three running backs at the top of the position heading into the draft, and the same can be said post-draft. But, hey, my spreadsheets and I will be wrong plenty. One direction you could go in is Trevor Lawrence. Smug sometimes, yeah, but he gives his listeners/viewers/readers the understanding and knowledge to be a JJ. Injury Guide. See Fantasy Football Week 7 PPR rankings for Dynasty League Football Dynasty ADP and JJ Zachariason compared with each other to find the best sleepers and avoid the busts. /r/fantasyfootball - Good For Your Season, Press J to jump to the feed. After being selected fifth overall by Cincinnati, Chase checked in with a 99th percentile rating. He's going to be bad. As usual you provide solid information as all dynasty degenerates prepare for the combines and draft. You also get air horns. Fields still made significant gains as a passer, improving in completion %, TD %, interception %, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, quarterback rating, and QBR. The other reason is because of draft capital, but Long was still a Day 2 pick. In this episode of the Locked on Dynasty Football Podcast, Ryan McDowell and Matt Williamson discuss incoming rookie tight end Michael Mayer from Notre Dame, discussing his college production, strengths, weaknesses, dynasty value and projected NFL Draft capital. If you don't believe in purchasing fantasy content (to me a weird take), don't buy it. Even more enticing, its not a fish-in-barrel class, so others can make mistakes confidently while we laugh. With JuJu Smith-Schuster taking a significant amount of slot snaps, Moore will be playing at least somewhat on the outside, giving him an exciting ceiling with Patrick Mahomes. And with Austin Ekeler potentially moving on after 2023, Spiller has an unlikely but plausible path to becoming a long-term starter. He's not Kyle Pitts, but Freiermuth had solid production at Penn State with a well above average breakout age. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 19Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 5Post-Draft Positional Rank: 7Tier: 10. Najee Harris was at the top of my pre-draft rookie rankings, and then he was selected by the Steelers in Round 1, giving him the best landing spot of any .